Information Technology for the Risk Management of Illicit Trade in Cigarettes (IT2RM)
Presentation of the final analytical report of the research project "Information Technology for Illicit Cigarette Trade Risk Management (IT2RM)" with the aim of developing precise analytical capabilities by aggregating publicly available data into a single data repository. Drawing on data on crime, social and economic development, consumer attitudes, legal trade, consumer behaviour, the illicit cigarette and tobacco market, and seized illicit shipments, the project has built a single database that enables the visualisation and analysis of key trends in the illicit trade and the identification of key factors contributing to the illicit trade at a regional level; detailing the relationship between the illicit cigarette trade and other crimes. On this basis, an accurate forecasting and risk management system has been developed that shows the dynamics and increase in the risk of illicit trade in cigarettes in different regions and that can support the efforts of both manufacturers and law enforcement.
The final report "Towards data-driven law enforcement: an analytical model of the illicit trade" builds on three years of project work and was prepared by Associate Professor Anton Gerunov.
The presentation took place in a hybrid setting on 20 May 2022.