IT for illicit trade risk management

The project aims to link existing public and private databases into a single online portal and develop an analytical capacity based on them.

Data on crime, socio-economic development, consumer attitudes and preferences, trade, cigarette and tobacco smuggling, captured illegal imports and exports will be brought together in a single database that can be used to visualise and analyse key trends in illegal trade and highlight regional trends.

Based on this analysis, we will look for specific links between the illicit trade in tobacco products and other illegal activities. We will make it possible to visualise strategic data (such as OLAF statistics) at European Union level to show those phenomena that drive the illicit trade at a structural level in the EU, as well as in Bulgaria's high-risk neighbouring countries such as Turkey, Serbia and Ukraine.

We will build on the data-portal with a sophisticated predictive model and risk management system to show the dynamics of illicit trade risk in different regions. The models will be oriented towards producers as well as public institutions and researchers.

Period: September 2019 - March 2022
Funding Organisation: PMI Impact
Partners: Code Runners, BlueBoard
Economic Perspectives Rule of Law