Taming the Doom (Bulgarian society as a case study)

In today's fractured societies, the only shared certainty is that the world is changing, and what was true yesterday may no longer apply tomorrow; tomorrow cannot be the updated version of yesterday.

Something new is emerging, but its shape remains unclear... Our expectations for a fundamentally different social order are reinforced by the reality that social processes continue to surprise us, making societies increasingly unpredictable and, therefore, difficult to manage. The COVID-19 pandemic, for example, revealed not only the challenges of governance but also the unexpected ways in which societies react. Despite the widespread belief that citizens will turn to markets or public institutions in times of crisis, state interventions did not increase public trust in either. Anti-vaccination movements across various societies brought together disparate groups in ways that were entirely unforeseen.

We discovered societies as fragmented and divided in unexpected ways. To better anticipate future developments and regain a measure of control over social processes, we propose two key approaches:

1. Identifying the dividing lines that mobilize different social groups, shaping identities that, though fluid, are meaningful in practice. The goal is to move beyond simplistic media narratives of a "liberal versus conservative" divide and instead explore what these divisions actually mean—not for political elites, but for ordinary citizens.
2. Identifying new points of consensus—the emerging "social glues"—that can unite fragmented societies. What issues are social actors willing to engage with and support?

To explore these ideas, we aim to analyze Bulgarian society, which has experienced a series of accumulating paradoxes. After 1989, Bulgaria embraced the promises of the "free world," particularly the right to the free movement of people, capital, goods, and ideas. Institutionally, this meant joining the EU and NATO, both seen as pillars of this "free world." Bulgarian society undertook rigorous transformations to align with these institutions and achieve membership.

But what is happening now, nearly fifty years later? The consensus on these four fundamental freedoms appears to be contested—not just in peripheral societies but even in the core of the "free world." Pro-EU groups in Bulgaria are currently focused on defending the status-quo, defending the previous consensuses aiming to guard the basic European values. So, this position forces pro-EU groups to be reactive instead of pro-active as they used to be. Thus, in our opinion, the research could prove to be an instrument to move from resistance to opportunities.

By analyzing public sentiments, our aim is to engage and construct new “inspiring” public groups, that can shape the change, instead of fighting it. Thus, the process of questioning the current crises and their effect, would be a way to find new progressive majorities and to assist the construction of new understanding of the basic values within the frame of liberal democracy.

The project is made possible by the support of